Mathematical Modelling of Ecosystem Dynamics in the Sundarbans Mangrove Forest, West Bengal, India

Abstract

This article investigates the application of mathematical modelling to the ecological dynamics of the Sundarbans mangrove forest in West Bengal, India, one of the world's largest and most ecologically complex deltaic ecosystems. By integrating differential equation frameworks, population dynamics models, and spatial statistical approaches, the study demonstrates how mathematical tools can reveal patterns of species interdependence, carbon sequestration rates, and ecosystem resilience under conditions of tidal salinity fluctuation and anthropogenic pressure. The findings indicate that predator-prey models calibrated with field data from the Sundarbans can accurately simulate population oscillations of Bengal tigers, spotted deer, and key fish species, while logistic growth equations effectively capture mangrove regeneration dynamics following cyclonic disturbance. The study highlights the urgent need to embed mathematical ecology in conservation planning for the Sundarbans and contributes to the broader field of theoretical ecology by demonstrating the applicability of dynamic systems modelling in tropical intertidal environments facing accelerating climate-driven change.